Draws between teams close in the table
Two sides within three places of each other cancel out, and the draw is underpriced.
Fragile result
The tested hypothesis loses units over the history and the recent period degrades further: it is not profitable as it stands.
ROI
−0.6%
Profit
−13.5 units
Bets
2,407
Win rate
27.9%
Average odds
3.66
Worst drawdown
81.3 units
The rules, exactly as tested
- Draw
- Standings gap ≥ -3
- Standings gap ≤ 3
- CompetitionsLigue 1, La Liga, Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A
- Seasons2021/22 to 2025/26
- OddsClosing odds, real only
Season by season
| Season | ROI | Bets | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | +5.5% | 489 | 29.2% |
| 2022/23 | −11.5% | 492 | 24.2% |
| 2023/24 | +10.4% | 493 | 30.6% |
| 2024/25 | +0.5% | 475 | 29.1% |
| 2025/26 | −8.1% | 458 | 26.2% |
League by league
| League | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|
| Serie A | +14.5% | 524 |
| Premier League | −11.3% | 488 |
| La Liga | −7.1% | 486 |
| Ligue 1 | −1.4% | 477 |
| Bundesliga | +1.6% | 432 |
Points of attention
- Gap between history and validation period ROI varies by 9.3 points between the two periods. Performance could be less consistent than the overall result suggests.
- Strategy not profitable -0.6% ROI over the tested history.
What happens when you move the thresholds
undefined variants of this strategy were simulated: 0 end up positive and 0 of its criteria hold across the range tested.
The variants themselves, and which thresholds hold, are visible in the app.
Computed on September 10, 2026
Past results on historical odds do not guarantee future returns. Bet responsibly.