Strategy library
The classic betting strategies, backtested for real.
Home favourites, over 2.5 goals, both teams to score: everyone has heard of them. Here is what each one actually returned on five seasons of real closing odds, flat one-unit stakes, no cherry-picking.
Five major leagues, one unit per bet, real closing odds only, recomputed every week.
| Strategy | Bet | ROI | Bets | Win rate | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favourites under 1.50Short-priced home favourites win so often that backing every one of them pays. | Home win | +0.1% | 1,387 | 75.8% | 17.6 units |
| Home underdogs at 3.00 or moreThe home advantage is underpriced whenever the home side is the outsider. | Home win | −14.7% | 2,659 | 20.1% | 417.9 units |
| Away favourites under 1.80A team priced under 1.80 away from home is strong enough for the venue not to matter. | Away win | +1.6% | 996 | 66.1% | 21.1 units |
| Draws between teams close in the tableTwo sides within three places of each other cancel out, and the draw is underpriced. | Draw | −0.6% | 2,407 | 27.9% | 81.3 units |
| Over 2.5 goals in every matchModern football produces enough goals for a blanket over 2.5 bet to pay. | Over 2.5 | −2.6% | 8,896 | 53.2% | 248.9 units |
| Over 2.5 when both teams score freelyWhen both sides average close to two goals a game, the over is the safer side. | Over 2.5 | +1.1% | 861 | 63.4% | 24.0 units |
| Under 2.5 between low-scoring teamsTwo teams that struggle to score produce quiet matches, and the under pays. | Under 2.5 | −6.6% | 846 | 54.0% | 66.4 units |
| Both teams to score, every matchDefences are porous enough that both teams score more often than the odds imply. | BTTS | −0.6% | 5,263 | 55.0% | 94.7 units |
| Home side on a winning runA home team with four wins in its last five carries its momentum into the next match. | Home win | −1.6% | 882 | 61.9% | 32.2 units |
| Top-six home team against a side eight places belowA top-six side at home against a team far below in the table is a bet worth taking at any price. | Home win | +1.1% | 1,091 | 70.6% | 23.8 units |
| Rested home team against a tired visitorSix days of rest against a visitor who played three days ago is an edge the market ignores. | Home win | −4.5% | 594 | 31.6% | 50.2 units |