Home favourites under 1.50
Short-priced home favourites win so often that backing every one of them pays.
Result to look into
Profitable overall, but its performance stays irregular and the result may still come down to variance.
ROI
+0.1%
Profit
+1.8 units
Bets
1,387
Win rate
75.8%
Average odds
1.33
Worst drawdown
17.6 units
The rules, exactly as tested
- Home win
- Maximum odds ≤ 1.5
- CompetitionsLigue 1, La Liga, Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A
- Seasons2021/22 to 2025/26
- OddsClosing odds, real only
Season by season
| Season | ROI | Bets | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | −2.2% | 309 | 73.5% |
| 2022/23 | +1.0% | 251 | 76.5% |
| 2023/24 | −0.7% | 277 | 75.5% |
| 2024/25 | +0.6% | 299 | 76.9% |
| 2025/26 | +2.5% | 251 | 76.9% |
League by league
| League | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League | −3.6% | 322 |
| Serie A | −2.8% | 291 |
| La Liga | +7.1% | 281 |
| Ligue 1 | −0.1% | 249 |
| Bundesliga | +0.6% | 244 |
Points of attention
- History and validation period agree Only 2.9 points apart between the two periods.
What happens when you move the thresholds
undefined variants of this strategy were simulated: 0 end up positive and 0 of its criteria hold across the range tested.
The variants themselves, and which thresholds hold, are visible in the app.
Computed on September 10, 2026
Past results on historical odds do not guarantee future returns. Bet responsibly.