Home underdogs at 3.00 or more
The home advantage is underpriced whenever the home side is the outsider.
Fragile result
The tested hypothesis loses units over the history: it is not profitable as it stands.
ROI
−14.7%
Profit
−391.6 units
Bets
2,659
Win rate
20.1%
Average odds
4.87
Worst drawdown
417.9 units
The rules, exactly as tested
- Home win
- Minimum odds ≥ 3
- CompetitionsLigue 1, La Liga, Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A
- Seasons2021/22 to 2025/26
- OddsClosing odds, real only
Season by season
| Season | ROI | Bets | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | −14.3% | 567 | 19.8% |
| 2022/23 | +4.1% | 559 | 24.9% |
| 2023/24 | −27.5% | 497 | 17.3% |
| 2024/25 | −26.2% | 531 | 17.9% |
| 2025/26 | −11.4% | 505 | 20.4% |
League by league
| League | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|
| Serie A | −27.6% | 642 |
| Premier League | −16.0% | 596 |
| Ligue 1 | −5.0% | 517 |
| La Liga | −10.6% | 504 |
| Bundesliga | −10.0% | 400 |
Points of attention
- Strategy not profitable -14.7% ROI over the tested history.
What happens when you move the thresholds
undefined variants of this strategy were simulated: 0 end up positive and 0 of its criteria hold across the range tested.
The variants themselves, and which thresholds hold, are visible in the app.
Computed on September 10, 2026
Past results on historical odds do not guarantee future returns. Bet responsibly.