Over 2.5 when both teams score freely
When both sides average close to two goals a game, the over is the safer side.
Result to look into
Profitable overall, but its performance has degraded sharply lately and the result may still come down to variance.
ROI
+1.1%
Profit
+9.3 units
Bets
861
Win rate
63.4%
Average odds
1.63
Worst drawdown
24.0 units
The rules, exactly as tested
- Over 2.5
- Average goals scored (last 10, home) ≥ 1.8
- Average goals scored (last 10, away) ≥ 1.5
- CompetitionsLigue 1, La Liga, Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A
- Seasons2021/22 to 2025/26
- OddsClosing odds, real only
Season by season
| Season | ROI | Bets | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | +3.1% | 116 | 62.9% |
| 2022/23 | +8.8% | 161 | 65.2% |
| 2023/24 | +2.2% | 204 | 66.2% |
| 2024/25 | −1.9% | 211 | 62.1% |
| 2025/26 | −5.1% | 169 | 60.4% |
League by league
| League | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League | −1.3% | 262 |
| Bundesliga | +5.9% | 223 |
| Ligue 1 | −2.0% | 163 |
| Serie A | −0.1% | 119 |
| La Liga | +3.2% | 94 |
Points of attention
- Gap between history and validation period ROI varies by 7.7 points between the two periods. Performance could be less consistent than the overall result suggests.
What happens when you move the thresholds
undefined variants of this strategy were simulated: 4 end up positive and 1 of its criteria hold across the range tested.
The variants themselves, and which thresholds hold, are visible in the app.
Computed on September 10, 2026
Past results on historical odds do not guarantee future returns. Bet responsibly.