Rested home team against a tired visitor
Six days of rest against a visitor who played three days ago is an edge the market ignores.
Fragile result
The tested hypothesis loses units over the history and the recent period degrades further: it is not profitable as it stands.
ROI
−4.5%
Profit
−27.0 units
Bets
594
Win rate
31.6%
Average odds
3.95
Worst drawdown
50.2 units
The rules, exactly as tested
- Home win
- Home rest days ≥ 6
- Away rest days ≤ 3
- CompetitionsLigue 1, La Liga, Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A
- Seasons2021/22 to 2025/26
- OddsClosing odds, real only
Season by season
| Season | ROI | Bets | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | −4.3% | 130 | 36.2% |
| 2022/23 | +22.7% | 121 | 32.2% |
| 2023/24 | −27.0% | 90 | 26.7% |
| 2024/25 | −3.2% | 132 | 29.5% |
| 2025/26 | −16.9% | 121 | 32.2% |
League by league
| League | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League | −1.9% | 123 |
| Bundesliga | +11.6% | 121 |
| La Liga | −5.9% | 121 |
| Ligue 1 | −28.1% | 117 |
| Serie A | +1.1% | 112 |
Points of attention
- Gap between history and validation period ROI varies by 15.5 points between the two periods. Performance could be less consistent than the overall result suggests.
- Strategy not profitable -4.5% ROI over the tested history.
What happens when you move the thresholds
undefined variants of this strategy were simulated: 2 end up positive and 0 of its criteria hold across the range tested.
The variants themselves, and which thresholds hold, are visible in the app.
Computed on September 10, 2026
Past results on historical odds do not guarantee future returns. Bet responsibly.