Top-six home team against a side eight places below
A top-six side at home against a team far below in the table is a bet worth taking at any price.
Result to look into
Profitable overall, but its performance stays irregular and the result may still come down to variance.
ROI
+1.1%
Profit
+12.3 units
Bets
1,091
Win rate
70.6%
Average odds
1.47
Worst drawdown
23.8 units
The rules, exactly as tested
- Home win
- Home team in the top 6 true
- Standings gap ≥ 8
- CompetitionsLigue 1, La Liga, Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A
- Seasons2021/22 to 2025/26
- OddsClosing odds, real only
Season by season
| Season | ROI | Bets | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | −3.9% | 219 | 68.9% |
| 2022/23 | +4.2% | 230 | 72.6% |
| 2023/24 | +4.0% | 224 | 74.1% |
| 2024/25 | −5.2% | 205 | 68.8% |
| 2025/26 | +5.9% | 213 | 68.1% |
League by league
| League | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|
| La Liga | +5.0% | 237 |
| Premier League | −3.9% | 235 |
| Serie A | −4.0% | 216 |
| Ligue 1 | +9.7% | 215 |
| Bundesliga | −1.4% | 188 |
Points of attention
- Gap between history and validation period ROI varies by 5.9 points between the two periods. Performance could be less consistent than the overall result suggests.
What happens when you move the thresholds
undefined variants of this strategy were simulated: 3 end up positive and 0 of its criteria hold across the range tested.
The variants themselves, and which thresholds hold, are visible in the app.
Computed on September 10, 2026
Past results on historical odds do not guarantee future returns. Bet responsibly.