Backstedge · Blog
What the numbers say before you bet.
Betting strategy, backtesting and data: guides to build, test and track your own strategies.
5 Seasons of Soccer Backtests: Favorites vs Underdogs on Closing Odds
Backstedge's five season soccer backtests use closing odds to compare favorites and underdogs. ROI, win rate, drawdown; steps to reproduce.
Sports Bettors: Favor Half or Quarter Kelly, Backtest and Track CLV First
Practical sports-betting guide to fractional Kelly: favor 0.5 or 0.25, validate p with closing line value, and backtest staking rules before betting live.
Beat the Closing Line: Tennis Betting Strategies With a 15–30 Live Edge
Pair pre match EV with a focused 15 to 30 live-service edge. Use fractional Kelly and no code backtests to prove your tennis betting strategies.
Bettors, Prove a +1–2% Edge in Hundreds of Bets via Closing Line Value
Learn how sports bettors track, remove the vig, and backtest closing line value to prove a +1–2% edge in hundreds of bets.
Sports Bettors: 10,000 Monte Carlo Runs to Size Stakes and Avoid Ruin
Practical Monte Carlo for sports bettors. See why median and percentiles matter, measure probability of ruin, and run checks in Excel, Python, or no code...